World Cup 2026 · third-place race
The cutline
Twelve groups. The top two of each go through — plus the
best 8 of the 12 third-placed teams. This is that
race for the last knockout spots, and the line that decides it.
As it stands
# Third-placed team Pts GD GF Qual Next
2 🇶🇦 Qatar Grp B tie 1 0 1 27% 🇨🇦 CAN, 🇧🇦 BIH 3 🇲🇦 Morocco Grp C tie 1 0 1 92% 🏴 SCO, 🇭🇹 HAI 4 🇧🇪 Belgium Grp G tie 1 0 1 95% 🇮🇷 IRN, 🇳🇿 NZL 6 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan Grp K tie 0 0 0 26% 🇨🇴 COL, 🇵🇹 POR 7 🏴 England Grp L tie 0 0 0 97% 🇭🇷 CRO, 🇬🇭 GHA 8 🇨🇿 Czechia Grp A 0 -1 1 55% 🇿🇦 RSA, 🇲🇽 MEX Cutline · 0 pts · 8 up, 4 out
9 🇪🇨 Ecuador Grp E 0 -1 0 81% 🇨🇼 CUW, 🇩🇪 GER 10 🇸🇳 Senegal Grp I tie 0 -2 1 68% 🇳🇴 NOR, 🇮🇶 IRQ 11 🇯🇴 Jordan Grp J tie 0 -2 1 11% 🇩🇿 ALG, 🇦🇷 ARG 12 🇹🇷 Turkey Grp D 0 -2 0 50% 🇵🇾 PAR, 🇺🇸 USA Projected cutline
3.0 pts expected
As it stands: 0 pts
4 pts 7%
3 pts 87%
2 pts 7%
Most likely the cut lands on 3 points:
third-placed teams finishing above it qualify for the knockouts; third-placed
teams below it go out. Third-placed teams level on 3 are separated by goal
difference, then goals scored, then fair-play points, then the drawing of lots.
Race for the line
All 48 teams · most likely first
Team Pts GD GF Qualify Next
🇩🇪 Germany 1st in Grp E 3 +6 7 99% 🇨🇮 CIV, 🇪🇨 ECU 🇫🇷 France 2nd in Grp I 3 +2 3 99% 🇮🇶 IRQ, 🇳🇴 NOR 🇦🇷 Argentina 1st in Grp J 3 +3 3 99% 🇦🇹 AUT, 🇯🇴 JOR 🇲🇽 Mexico 1st in Grp A 3 +2 2 98% 🇰🇷 KOR, 🇨🇿 CZE 🇧🇷 Brazil 2nd in Grp C 1 0 1 97% 🇭🇹 HAI, 🏴 SCO 🇳🇴 Norway 1st in Grp I 3 +3 4 97% 🇸🇳 SEN, 🇫🇷 FRA 🏴 England 3rd in Grp L 0 0 0 97% 🇭🇷 CRO, 🇬🇭 GHA 🇸🇪 Sweden 1st in Grp F 3 +4 5 96% 🇳🇱 NED, 🇯🇵 JPN 🇪🇸 Spain 4th in Grp H 1 0 0 96% 🇸🇦 KSA, 🇺🇾 URY 🇧🇪 Belgium 3rd in Grp G 1 0 1 95% 🇮🇷 IRN, 🇳🇿 NZL 🇦🇹 Austria 2nd in Grp J 3 +2 3 94% 🇦🇷 ARG, 🇩🇿 ALG 🇲🇦 Morocco 3rd in Grp C 1 0 1 92% 🏴 SCO, 🇭🇹 HAI 🇵🇹 Portugal 2nd in Grp K 1 0 1 92% 🇺🇿 UZB, 🇨🇴 COL 🇨🇴 Colombia 4th in Grp K 0 0 0 90% 🇺🇿 UZB, 🇨🇩 COD 🇦🇺 Australia 2nd in Grp D 3 +2 2 88% 🇺🇸 USA, 🇵🇾 PAR 🇯🇵 Japan 2nd in Grp F 1 0 2 86% 🇹🇳 TUN, 🇸🇪 SWE 🇨🇦 Canada 4th in Grp B 1 0 1 86% 🇶🇦 QAT, 🇨🇭 SUI 🇪🇬 Egypt 4th in Grp G 1 0 1 84% 🇳🇿 NZL, 🇮🇷 IRN 🇭🇷 Croatia 4th in Grp L 0 0 0 83% 🏴 ENG, 🇵🇦 PAN 🇪🇨 Ecuador 3rd in Grp E 0 -1 0 81% 🇨🇼 CUW, 🇩🇪 GER 🏴 Scotland 1st in Grp C 3 +1 1 77% 🇲🇦 MAR, 🇧🇷 BRA 🇺🇾 Uruguay 1st in Grp H 1 0 1 75% 🇨🇻 CPV, 🇪🇸 ESP 🇸🇳 Senegal 3rd in Grp I 0 -2 1 68% 🇳🇴 NOR, 🇮🇶 IRQ 🇨🇩 Congo DR 1st in Grp K 1 0 1 57% 🇨🇴 COL, 🇺🇿 UZB 🇨🇿 Czechia 3rd in Grp A 0 -1 1 55% 🇿🇦 RSA, 🇲🇽 MEX 🇩🇿 Algeria 4th in Grp J 0 -3 0 54% 🇯🇴 JOR, 🇦🇹 AUT even odds to qualify (50%)
🇹🇷 Turkey 3rd in Grp D 0 -2 0 50% 🇵🇾 PAR, 🇺🇸 USA 🇬🇭 Ghana 2nd in Grp L 0 0 0 44% 🇵🇦 PAN, 🏴 ENG 🇮🇷 Iran 2nd in Grp G 1 0 2 40% 🇧🇪 BEL, 🇪🇬 EGY 🇵🇾 Paraguay 4th in Grp D 0 -3 1 36% 🇹🇷 TUR, 🇦🇺 AUS 🇵🇦 Panama 1st in Grp L 0 0 0 33% 🇬🇭 GHA, 🇭🇷 CRO 🇶🇦 Qatar 3rd in Grp B 1 0 1 27% 🇨🇦 CAN, 🇧🇦 BIH 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 3rd in Grp K 0 0 0 26% 🇨🇴 COL, 🇵🇹 POR 🇯🇴 Jordan 3rd in Grp J 0 -2 1 11% 🇩🇿 ALG, 🇦🇷 ARG 🇹🇳 Tunisia 4th in Grp F 0 -4 1 8% 🇯🇵 JPN, 🇳🇱 NED 🇭🇹 Haiti 4th in Grp C 0 -1 0 6% 🇧🇷 BRA, 🇲🇦 MAR 🇮🇶 Iraq 4th in Grp I 0 -3 1 4% 🇫🇷 FRA, 🇸🇳 SEN 🇨🇼 Curaçao 4th in Grp E 0 -6 1 2% 🇪🇨 ECU, 🇨🇮 CIV
All 48 teams, ranked by their chance of reaching the knockouts by any route — clinched at the
top, eliminated at the bottom, the real race around the even-odds line in the middle.
Now = current group position; Qualify = chance of qualifying.
How the line works
Each of the 12 groups sends its top two teams straight to the Round of 32.
That is 24 places. The last 8 go to the best third-placed teams,
ranked across all groups by points, then goal difference, goals scored, and
fair play.
The four third-placed teams who miss out are eliminated. With groups still
in play, the level of the line moves — so alongside the live table we
simulate every remaining fixture to show the chance it settles on
2, 3 or 4 points.
How the projection is built →